Agentic AI threat modelling
Prioritise credible attack paths against the agent's business authority
A workflow connects untrusted information to tools that can change business state. The decision is how to prioritise credible attack paths against the agent's business authority. The work begins with your actual workflow and looks for the evidence that separates intended behaviour from a consequential exception. It is particularly relevant to security architects and agent product owners. A useful outcome is an explicit account of what was examined, what remains uncertain, and which decision the evidence can support.
The agent security relationship
- Data-flow diagrams
Establish the basis for controlled input.
- Trust crossing
Locate where external content gains influence.
- Agent threat model
Retain the scoped finding and its unresolved dependencies.
Decision
Frame the decision around controlled input
Questions and the evidence they need
- Controlled input
- Inspect data-flow diagrams for the relevant constraint or observation.
- Trust crossing
- Inspect actor assumptions for the relevant constraint or observation.
- Consequential action
- Inspect assets for the relevant constraint or observation.
The decision is how to prioritise credible attack paths against the agent’s business authority. This is relevant to security architects and agent product owners when a workflow connects untrusted information to tools that can change business state. Name the affected workflow, the consequence of a wrong decision, and the owner who can act on the result. The initial discussion should establish which evidence is already available and which uncertainty is material enough to investigate.
The specific failure hypothesis is that a threat list focuses on the model while overlooking the connector that actually commits changes. It remains a hypothesis until examined in the deployment. Existing internal tests or operating records may already resolve it; identify the uncovered question before commissioning additional work.
Mechanism
Threat models connect attacker influence to business effect
Relationships within agent security
- Controlled input
- Declare what the hypothetical attacker can change.
- Trust crossing
- Locate where external content gains influence.
- Consequential action
- Tie the hypothesis to an asset and control.
What this specialty examines
Threat modelling should start with assets and consequential actions, then identify who can influence the path to them. Separate user instructions, external content, peer agents and compromised dependencies. Each gives a hypothetical attacker a different level of control.
The review should map trust boundaries and attacker-controlled inputs to consequential actions and proposed controls. Identify the normal route, relevant exceptions and the authoritative record of the outcome. Inspect the relevant business-system record, enforcement event or process evidence alongside any reported status. Keep incomplete cases visible, with an explanation of what their absence prevents the owner from concluding.
The tradeoff to make explicit
For this decision, broad threat coverage aids discovery while a specific deployment is needed to make testable claims. Compare the available design or operating choices against the same intended outcome. If one option removes a required control or changes the task boundary, describe that difference before treating its apparent simplicity, speed or lower effort as an improvement. The decision should expose the tradeoff instead of burying it in an aggregate score.
Preparation
Connect the working inputs to the boundary being examined
Evidence packet for controlled input
Illustrative working format
- Data-flow diagrams
- Match this description to the deployed or proposed boundary being examined.
- Actor assumptions
- Separate observed inputs from assumptions and retain the comparison boundary.
- Assets
- Name the custodian and the conditions requiring a refreshed version.
- Action privileges
- Identify provenance and the specific decision this material can inform.
Start with data-flow diagrams, actor assumptions, assets and action privileges. Identify the owner, revision and operating context of each source. Sanitised examples may support initial design, but differences from actual conditions should remain explicit. Where direct access is unsuitable, a customer-controlled evidence or execution route may be considered, with agreed handling and retention.
The scope also needs the security decision owner, agreed expectations for a representative threat scenario, and the authority to inspect the relevant boundary. Specify what evidence would distinguish the failure in which a threat list focuses on the model while overlooking the connector that actually commits changes from acceptable behaviour. If stakeholders disagree about intended behaviour, resolve the interpretation before classifying the observed difference as a defect.
How the work proceeds
Carry controlled input through to an accountable finding
From the scoped material to a decision record
- Data-flow diagrams
Define the hypothetical attacker’s starting influence.
- Trust crossing
Apply the scoped check to consequential action.
- Agent threat model
Record the evidence, open dependencies, and the owner’s next decision.
Define the controlled threat scenario
Review data-flow diagrams, actor assumptions, assets and action privileges with security architects and agent product owners. State what the hypothetical attacker controls, the protected action and the systems included in the authorised exercise. Prepare synthetic records and harmless markers where appropriate, with stopping conditions for unexpected effects. The preparation output is a scenario brief that distinguishes an influence attempt from a prohibited action actually reaching a business resource.
Challenge the path and review effects
Trace influence through planning and tools to the resource that commits an action. Prioritise hypotheses using consequence, reachability and existing controls. Keep evidence-backed observations distinct from plausible paths that still require validation.
Select a control response and retest
Build an agent threat model with ranked hypotheses and validation priorities from the reviewed observations. Separate agent behaviour, application enforcement and the resulting resource state so the recommended change reaches the responsible layer. Choose a bounded retest that reproduces the original condition and checks legitimate behaviour after remediation. If the required investigation exceeds the agreed technique or expertise, retain the unresolved path and identify the qualified review needed.
Indicative artefact
Make the agent threat model usable by its owner
Agent threat model
Illustrative working format
- Agent threat model
- Identify the assessed workflow, revision, and decision boundary.
- Ranked hypotheses
- Link supporting and contrary observations to inspectable evidence.
- Validation priorities
- Name the missing evidence, responsible owner, and condition for revisiting the decision.
A useful decision artefact is an agent threat model with ranked hypotheses and validation priorities. Supporting material may include selected cases, configuration or process records, evidence references, a disagreement log and prioritised actions. Retain the case selection rationale and material disagreements alongside the result; otherwise the result may be mistaken for complete coverage.
Illustrative scenario
Examine consequential action through a constructed exception
A constructed case and its decision paths
Illustrative scenario
- Controlled input
An untrusted document tries to redirect an agent towards an unauthorised action.
- Trust crossing
Trace the document's influence from ingestion to requested tool action.
- Consequential action
Choose controls at the consequential trust crossing identified by the case.
Consider a fictional situation: a supplier document influences an agent that can amend purchasing records and send external messages. The scenario is illustrative, with no client engagement, executed test or measured improvement implied.
For the supplier document, map its ingestion and the agent’s purchasing authority. The first useful question is whether document content can change action parameters or approval expectations. That path can guide a bounded test without assuming an attack has occurred.
Scope and next action
Keep the conclusion within the agreed threat scenario
Confirm fit before the next commitment
- Controlled input
- This review is limited to the agreed threat scenario.
- Data-flow diagrams
- The relevant owner must confirm access and the intended operating conditions.
- Agent threat model
- A bounded challenge cannot establish exhaustive protection.
Authorised scenario testing is not a claim of exhaustive penetration testing or guaranteed protection. Intrusive security work requires qualified specialists and a separately agreed scope. Any engagement depends on an agreed scope, qualified team, authorised access and confirmed availability. Bring the affected workflow, its current configuration or process, the triggering change and the evidence already available. The immediate scope question is prompted by the situation in which a workflow connects untrusted information to tools that can change business state; confirm which missing observation would change the owner’s next action.
Ways to engage
Related engagement scopes
Agent Release Readiness Review
The Agent Release Readiness Review is a fixed-scope, three-week independent test of one AI agent workflow that shows a release board what the agent does, what it is allowed to do and what happens when it is wrong, and ends in a signed recommendation.
AI Agent Runtime Security Review
Make every delegation explicit. Examine who the agent acts for, where it can execute and which tools it can reach when instructions alone are not enough.
AI Agent Red Team
Challenge the boundaries that matter to your workflow. Test agreed attack scenarios against agent instructions, tools and data access.
Continue exploring
Related insights and resources
The permission boundary behind every agent action
An agent can only be evaluated in the context of what its tools allow. Examine identity, delegated authority and action boundaries before you put a workflow in motion.
Before your agent can act, define its authority
A working paper for the moment an AI system moves from advice to action. Map identity, permissions, approvals and recovery into an authority model your team can review and test.
Running an AI-agent incident tabletop exercise
A useful tabletop follows one plausible agent failure through detection, containment, evidence, business recovery and accountable return to service.